This year, freight demand followed its usual post–Independence Day bump. The run-up to peak season, however, is expected to be more uneven than last year. Domestic truckload and less than truckload shipping networks are feeling the push and pull of retail promotions, produce, and cross-border trade — and the “where” matters as much as the “how much.” Some markets are keeping summer momentum, while others are easing faster than expected. Here’s what’s different, how we anticipate it to play out, and practical steps to manage the peak season ahead.

What’s different for peak season shipping 2025

Big shifts that are shaping truckloads and less than truckload shipment planning right now.

• Inventories are leaner, restocks are more frequent: Retailers and brands are ordering in smaller waves to stay agile, which smooths out some peaks but creates more short-notice tenders and regional pops in demand.
• Intermodal is back in the mix: Better rail service and price spreads versus longhaul truckload are pulling some freight back to domestic intermodal corridors, especially West Coast–Midwest and Southeast lanes.
• Fuel is a swing factor again: Diesel price volatility is creeping back into routing and mode decisions, particularly on longhauls; keep an eye on U.S. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook for near-term outlooks and regional differentials.
• LTL shipping network resets are sticking: Post‑Yellow capacity has largely been absorbed, but service maps and zip-to-zip times are different than two years ago. Expect selective rate firmness where density has improved and softer spots where imbalances persist.
• De minimis exemption suspension is reshaping cross-border freight: The U.S. ended its $800 de minimis exemption for imports in May 2025. Many shippers are consolidating smaller shipments into LTL shipments and full truckload moves, driving up demand for cross-border consolidation services. 

Temperature controlled transportation outlook 

If you run cold freight, here’s the first place things might warm up. 

• Produce keeps migrating north: As harvests move from the Southwest and California into the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, and Northeast, reefer tractors follow — often tightening capacity for beverages and proteins in the same weeks.
• Beverages and promotions add torque: From Milwaukee and Chicago down to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, beverage volumes and retail promos stack on top of produce, creating short bursts of higher outbound demand and headhaul advantages for carriers.
• Ports aren’t the only reefer hubs: Import-dependent cold chains around Philadelphia/South Jersey, South Florida, and South Texas can flip quickly — one strong week of produce or protein imports can reset local reefer availability even if overall truckload demand is steady.

Pricing and capacity signals to monitor 

Keep an eye on these three areas so you can adjust before the market moves on you.

• Spot vs. contract gap: A narrowing gap is an early tell that carriers are finding better opportunities on the spot board and may push for mini-bids. Watch weekly analytics from market platforms for confirmation in your core lanes and make more informed pricing decisions by using an integrated rate marketplace.
• Tender rejections and load-to-truck ratios: Rising rejections in your headhaul markets — or sudden spikes in load-to-truck ratios — usually precede rate pressure by a few days. Align routing guides to protect your must-cover freight.
• Diesel and accessorials: Even small diesel swings can move all-in costs on long regional rounds. Revisit fuel tables and detention policies in markets where dwell has crept up.

Peak season implications for shippers 

Logistics experts are used to expecting the unexpected. While nothing in life is guaranteed, the following things are in 2025. 

• Expect rolling hot spots, not a single nationwide crunch: Capacity will tighten in pockets — especially around cross-border hubs, beverage/produce markets, and e-comm DC (e-commerce distribution center) clusters — while other regions stay loose.
• Intermodal can be your pressure valve: When truck pricing pops on longhauls, compare door-to-door intermodal options out of LA/Long Beach, Dallas/Fort Worth, Chicago, and Atlanta for relief.
• Weather risk is real: Late-summer hurricanes and heat waves can scramble Southern and Gulf Coast networks with little notice. Using AI-powered visibility tools can help build a weather buffer into routings and appointment windows.

How to manage peak season shipping in 2025 

Start here for quick, focused wins. 

• Pre-book your “must-arrive-by” freight: Lock in capacity on promotion- and event-driven loads 7–10 days out; use flexible pickup windows on everything else.
• Pair lanes to build density: Offer carriers roundtrips or multi-stop tours (e.g., ATL–CLT–RDU–ATL or CHI–MKE–MSP–CHI) to trade at better rates for better planning.
• Keep a standing intermodal plan: Price and hold capacity on a few key lanes so you can pivot fast if truckload rates jump for a week or two
• For reefer, stage empties and widen lead times: Work with carriers to pre-position equipment in produce and beverage corridors; add 12–24 hours of buffer at origin during local harvest peaks
• Offset the end of the de minimis exemption: To avoid the delays and added fees (that will hit small-parcel cross-border e-commerce especially hard,) use a TMS to identify opportunities to consolidate multiple small shipments into LTL or full truckload moves.
• Watch fuel, tweak surcharges: Review FSC tables monthly while diesel is volatile; align accessorials with actual dwell and live-load realities
• Monitor cross-border transit times and adjust: Expect longer dwell at the border, especially for consolidated loads. Use real-time visibility tools and IoT devices to track shipments and proactively communicate any delays to customers and partners.

Peak season shipping in 2025 won’t be defined by one big national surge. It’ll be a series of local heat waves driven by promotions, produce, and cross-border trade — with intermodal acting as a key pressure valve. Plan early, stay flexible, and keep multiple routing options so you can pivot as the market moves.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is peak season shipping and when does it occur?

Peak season shipping refers to the period—typically from late July through December—when freight demand surges due to back-to-school, holiday, and year-end inventory pushes. This leads to higher rates, tighter capacity, and increased risk of delays 

Why is planning ahead crucial for peak season shipping?

During peak season shipping, capacity is limited and rates rise quickly. Booking shipments early—ideally 30-45 days in advance for ocean and 2-3 weeks for air—helps secure space, avoid rollovers, and minimize surcharges 

How can shippers manage costs during peak season shipping?

Shippers can manage costs by consolidating shipments, diversifying carrier options, locking in contract rates, and using real-time rate shopping tools. Monitoring spot vs. contract rates and being flexible with transit times also helps control expenses 

What are the best ways to avoid delays during peak season shipping?

To avoid delays, segment shipments by priority, split high-value or urgent SKUs, and consider alternate ports or expedited shipping options. Real-time tracking and proactive communication with carriers are also essential 

How can technology improve peak season shipping performance?

Leveraging a transportation management system (TMS), real-time freight visibility tools, and automated notifications can streamline coordination, improve tracking, and help shippers quickly adapt to disruptions during peak season shipping.

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